Mansfield, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

909
FXUS61 KCLE 071925
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
325 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Heat and humidity build to start the week, but fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday will produce
locally heavy rainfall.

2.) The warmest temperatures of the summer so far are likely
Wednesday and Thursday, and heat indices could approach 100 F.

3.) Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue
Wednesday and Thursday, but a more organized round of
strong to severe thunderstorms is possible Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong mid/upper ridge axis will slide over the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes Monday as the downstream mid/upper trough
currently over the eastern Great Lakes slides off the East
Coast. This will allow the surface high to drift across New
England and the Mid Atlantic through the day, setting up
southerly return flow. This warm air advection combined with 850
mb temps warming above 17 C will yield highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s Monday, but luckily, dew points will remain fairly
comfortable (a drier heat).

By Monday night and Tuesday, the first piece of broad overall
western CONUS mid/upper troughing ejecting across south central
Canada will help to pick up a southern stream mid-level
shortwave and eject it through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. This
will temporarily weaken the mid/upper ridge overhead, and as
the associated surface low lifts through the western and central
Great Lakes Tuesday, a warm front will lift through the region.
This will usher in a much more moist low-level airmass. A few
showers are possible in the isentropic ascent ahead of the warm
front Monday night, but surface heating of the increasingly rich
low-level moisture Tuesday (dew points rising into the low 70s)
will yield moderate to strong destabilization. This will lead
to widespread convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Boundary
layer flow will be weak, and PWATs look to climb to near 2
inches, which is near the maximum climatology for June 9, so
slow moving convection with torrential/efficient rainfall will
be a concern. Luckily, most of the CWA has had a bone dry past 2
weeks, but training convection will need to be monitored for
localized flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas,
especially where locally heavy rain occurred yesterday. The bulk
of the area has been placed in a day 3 marginal risk for
excessive rainfall by WPC. Temperatures will be a few degrees
lower Tuesday due to the clouds and convection, but the much
higher humidity will probably make it feel worse than Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The mid/upper ridge will become reestablished across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday while also
expanding across the eastern CONUS ahead of the main piece of
the western CONUS mid/upper trough progressing into the northern
Plains. Deep west-southwest flow and 850 mb temps of 20-22 C
advecting into the region beneath the thermal ridge will allow
for the warmest temperatures of the young summer season.
Ensemble guidance points to highs between 88 and 93 F across
most of the area Wednesday and Thursday, and this combined with
dew points in the low 70s will yield heat indices approaching or
exceeding 100 F in some areas. The NWS HeatRisk map depicts an
increasing area of major (level 3 of 4) heat impacts Wednesday
and Thursday, and with this being the first extended period of
heat and humidity of the season, extra precautions will need to
be taken to stay cool and hydrated. Overnight low temperatures
will remain elevated in the upper 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The hot and humid airmass will allow for scattered diurnal
convection Wednesday and Thursday, but fairly strong mid-level capping
beneath an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) plume will keep coverage
much lower than Tuesday. Nevertheless, if coverage ends up
higher than expected, temperatures and resultant heat indices
could end up a little lower Wednesday and Thursday. This will
be monitored, but as of now, hot and humid is the main message.

The aforementioned mid/upper trough progressing through the
northern Plains is trending faster and looks to reach the Great
Lakes Friday. This will break down the ridge and allow for a
cold frontal passage Friday. The trough will bring mid/upper
synoptic support and dynamics, so depending on the timing of the
front, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday. Lower
temperatures and humidity are expected Friday through the
weekend, but still on the somewhat sticky side as the front
becomes quasi-stationary nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions are expected under high pressure through the TAF
window. North winds less than 10 knots become light and variable
and then southeast during the day tomorrow.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms early Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will depart to the east by tomorrow. Winds turn
easterly while increasing to 10-15 knots on Monday, resulting in
some nearshore choppiness, especially in the western basin. A warm
front approaches the lake on Tuesday allowing for winds to shift
southerly while remaining between 10-15 knots. Southerly to
southwesterly flow will continue through the remainder of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders