Mansfield, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

067
FXUS61 KCLE 051214
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
814 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. A cooler pattern for
the next few days will allow for periodic precipitation chances
and possible light snow accumulation across northeastern Ohio
and northwestern Pennsylvania Monday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few rounds of precipitation are expected this week with lake
effect rain/snow showers likely in northeastern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania. Light snow accumulations are possible
within the snow belt region Monday night into Tuesday.

2) Much cooler, below average temperatures are expected through the
middle of the week until temperatures moderate by the second half of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will briefly build south of the region today providing
some relief from the rain the region has seen the past several days.
Upper level troughing will move in today and persist across eastern
Canada for the first half of the week that will provide support for
the periods of precipitation. There maybe some light rain showers
across far northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania today
through late this evening with flow shifting to be more westerly
around the trough creating upsloping conditions. A shortwave will
move through the region on Monday with more moisture that will
provide better support for precipitation starting Monday morning.
There maybe some rain/snow mix to start the day on Monday, but
most of the precipitation will transition over to mainly rain
throughout the day. Most of the precipitation should be confined
to northern Ohio into Pennsylvania, though scattered
precipitation is possible elsewhere. With the colder air and
persistent northwesterly flow, there will be support for lake
effect/upslope snow showers across the snow belt. The ground
should still be fairly warm from the past week which should
inhibit the snow accumulation, but 1-3" are possible in
northwestern Pennsylvania with less than an inch expected in the
rest of the snow belt. Any snow showers should end by Tuesday
afternoon as ridging begins to build in and the upper level
troughing exits.

The pattern will shift again as high pressure builds in Tuesday
evening with a couple days of dry weather expected during the
middle of the week. Rain chances return Thursday night into
Friday morning, though there is still plenty of uncertainty in
the timing with this system.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As the surface low pressure system from last night exits out into
eastern Canada, a much cooler air mass will move in from the
northwest starting today. High temperatures today will be much
cooler than yesterday by 20-30 degrees, only climbing into the mid
to upper 40s. The below average temperatures will continue through
Tuesday night with persistent northwesterly flow over the region.
Overnight lows will be at their coldest Tuesday night behind a low
pressure system exiting out to the east with lows down into the low
to mid 20s. Some areas in northeastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania could see lows in the teens. Temperatures will begin to
moderate and climb back to around seasonally average as the upper
level trough exits to the east and west to southwesterly low level
flow takes hold on the region. By the end of the week, temperatures
will be back to being slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Today will feature a mix of MVFR and VFR clouds with a broad
trough in place across the region. Most locations are starting
off this morning VFR but expect to see an expansion of MVFR
with daytime heating after 15Z. Westerly winds will be breezy
with gusts to around 25 knots, veering to northwesterly after
22Z. Wind gusts will drop off at most sites by 01Z and winds
will back to southwesterly overnight. Terminals will be mostly
dry today but scattered showers are possible in NW Pennsylvania
this evening. Unclear at this point if it will hit the terminals
so just included a vicinity shower at this time.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return Monday and Monday night in rain
and/or snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough with elevated winds will be over Lake Erie today. The Small
Craft Advisory has been expanded to the western basin and will be in
effect for all nearshore waters through this evening. Winds will
tend to be 20-25 knots with waves as high as 4 to 6 feet from
Cleveland eastward. A ridge builds over the lake tonight with
improving conditions. A stronger cold front will cross Lake Erie on
Monday night with winds shifting to the north at 15 to 25 knots.
This will yield waves of 4 to 7 feet east of the Lake Erie Islands,
and likely result in additional Small Craft Advisories. High
pressure builds east across the Great Lakes on Tuesday bringing
light wind and wave conditions. A warm front will lift back north on
Wednesday with winds shifting out of the south, then increasing into
the 15 to 25 knot range Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&


.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10